No hope for a tsunami peace dividend in Sri Lanka?

The tsunami of 26 December 2004 hit many war-torn world regions: Among them Sri Lanka, with its civil war lasting now more than 20 years, the Indonesian island Aceh, where rebel groups fight the central government in Jakarta, and Thailand, which has to struggle with insurgents fighting for the independence of the muslim south of the country. Even Somalia, where central government is virtually inexistent, was hit by the giant wave. The effect of the tsunami on Burma (or Myanmar) is not yet known, due to the information policy of the regime in Rangoon. But will the tsunami have an influence on these conflicts?

So far this question has been especially discussed in connection with Sri Lanka. Signs from the region are conflicting. How much direct military capabilities of the parties have been affected still has to be determined. Initial reports that the LTTE, the Tamil rebels in Sri Lanka, lost a significant part of their fleet were apparently not based on facts. On the other hand, the LTTE-controlled part of the island was hit badly, leaving room for speculation about the effect on the LTTE forces, especially on their supply chain. The LTTE is listed on the United States' official list of terror groups since 1997.

Some comments speak of a possible "peace dividend", if aid is equally distributed among all groups affected, leaving room for reconciliation efforts. But so far signs from the areas affected are less encouraging. Janes.com reports that initial joint aid efforts in Sri Lanka are now hampered by the government's desire to control all external relief efforts, although the government denies these accusations. Additionally, a senior leader of the LTTE was killed in an attack on 7 February 2005, possibly by a breakaway rebel faction within the Tamil movement. He was apparently returning from aid negotiations. This was the highest-ranking official to be killed since the government and the rebels signed a ceasefire agreement in February 2002. The LTTE announced that the truce was endangered by the incident. These developments prompted the Secretary-General of the UN, Kofi Annan, to condemn the killing and to "urge all parties to exercise calm and restraint so as to avoid actions that could disrupt the ceasefire agreement".

If there can indeed be a "peace dividend" in Sri Lanka will probably be decided when it comes to the distribution of long term aid projects. If the Tamil minority feels that aid is cut from their territory or if they suspect that central government in Colombo tries to exert control via aid projects, chances for a continued peace process are bleak. Confidence-building measures between the parties seem to be the only way to avoid a new eruption of the conflict. Today's efforts by Norway to act as peacebroker in the conflict again may offer the only small ray of hope.